The Energy Non-Crisis

[Chuck Bogardus]

Global warming is "popular" right now... And you can bet that every starving post-doc, and as many grad student minions as he/she can get, are jumping into studying "climate change" before the money pool gets drained.

 

[Big Al]

Go to the website for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They have temperature records going back to 1895.

Go to their monthly averages for all reporting stations in the Lower 48. That's averaging a lot of data. Lots of data.

Use the data from 1900 to 1999 (100 years) to determine monthly averages. That old Central Limit Theorem is working overtime with this much data and averaging.

Then take the recent data since January 2000 until now (May 2008). Subtract the 100 year monthly averages from the recent data (since January 2000).

Plot those 101 monthly variances on a simple trend graph. A fourth grader can do it. Again, each monthly variance is an average of lots and lots of reporting stations in the Lower 48. As W. Edwards Deming said, "Look at the data."

If you care to, do a little regression and calculate the R-square. Something that might be considered data analysis and not emotional or political.

The R-square is 0 (zero) to four decimal places. No trend. Na-da. And what slope there is -- is cooler.

Most scientific conclusions from physical sciences would expect R-squares in the 90+ range to get serious consideration in a scientific journal.

But Global Warming can declare itself to be beyond debate of reputable scientists with an R-square of zero.

Guess the Global Warming folks will credit Bush with putting a stop to rising temperatures. Guess they'll erect a statue to him.



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There is an independent group that went to every NOAA reporting station in the country to check for compliance. To insure the way the data was collected was in the standards set by NOAA. They found a large number of the weather station failed. They took pictures as proof. The worst station was on the UofA campus in Tucson, Arizona. The station was next to an asphalt parking lot. This was just one of many. Some stations were under the discharge of air conditioning units.

This makes me wonder, can you trust any of their data?

 

[Hammer1]

This makes me wonder, can you trust any of their data?

Your feelings are probably on solid ground, Big Al.

Think you're right about all the data being used by government employees to enhance their power and control.

Or data collected by anyone whose livelihood is enhanced by creating scare, crisis, or government action or control, e.g., college professors and grad students or any other folks with government or special interests grants from folks like Al Gore, Green Peace, or the Sierra Club.

Feel the same way about any United Nations data.

Think you are right to be suspect of these folks, Big Al.












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[Hammer1]

All data is suspect

In their August 5, 2004, issue...

The Wall Street Journal reported on a John Hopkins study of medical doctor examinations.

They reveiwed 492 X-rays which had been used in court cases. When the doctors were told what the results needed to show, 96% of the X-rays were found to show what the doctors were told to find.

When the same X-rays were submitted to radiologists without reference to the "right answer", less than 5% were found to have the ailment that those same X-rays had previously been reported to show and sworn to in court.

Have no problem with doctors. Have family members who are doctors and am currently putting another through medical school.

Guess even the most honorable need to be concerned about the popular or right answer leading them astray.

Global Warming is the most popular religion on the planet right now.

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[Chuck Bogardus]

Just follow the money. If you say the sky is falling, you get more to study it.

 

[vicvanb]

Science vs Junk Science

I asked you to comapare the trends of the past with todays trend. That was done for us though by someone else and it always shows that there is not global warming going on but weather trends that have always occurred throughout the past and are still occurring.

I don't know what data you are referring to but every analysis available to date by reputable climate scientists shows a warming trend over the past several decades.

In all areas of science there are uncertainties. In climate science there is no uncertainty that there has been a warming trend in recent years.

There is minimal uncertainty about the cause of the trend. Very few reputable climate scientists now dispute the cause as increased greenhouse gases produced by human activity.

There is virtually no uncertainty that as (not if) the trend continues, there will be dire consequences in the form of increased sea levels, weather extremes, including droughts that will reduce food production, and more severe storms like Katrina with flooding and property damage.

Anyone is free to disbelieve what the scientists say, but those of us in the field of science were trained to test hypotheses by gathering data and analyzing it to determine how nature behaves. If you don't want to accept the science as accurate, that is your choice.

You too should he careful about hitching your wagon. Yesterday on talk radio I heard a "scientist" debunking global warming. Turns out he had a PhD in physical chemistry. When I'm ill I go to a medical doctor, not a plumber. There are a lot of "plumbers" these days spouting off about global warming. Trust what they say at your own peril.

 

[Phil Deese]

Information from ANWR.org

Oil Exports
Until 1995, Alaska North Slope crude could not be legally exported, and the export ban contributed to a West Coast oil glut, reducing the price received by North Slope producers. Oil is exported from other oil-producing states with no prohibitions, however. Since mid-2000, no oil has been exported to foreign countries from Alaska.

Myths of ANWR
I n 1980, the 1.5 million acre Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was specially designated by Congress for further study of its oil and gas potential. Much of the rest of ANWR’s 19 million acres is already designated as Wilderness.

Groups seeking to stop oil exploration in Alaska want to designate the Coastal Plain as Wilderness (half of ANWR is for-mally designated Wilderness now), and present several misleading arguments:

Here are the “myths” being told about ANWR, and the truth:
*Myth: All of Alaska’s Arctic coast is open to oil and gas development.

Reality: With the exception of the area between the Colville and Canning Rivers (which is owned by the state of Alaska) none of the more than 1000 miles of Arctic Alaska coastline is open to oil and gas leasing, not one mile of it.

*Myth: The state of Alaska will get 90 percent of any royalties from oil production in ANWR’s Coastal Plain.

Reality: The federal government won litigation in the Supreme Court of the United States which allows congress to determine the share of revenues with the State of Alaska. Congress wants 50/50.

*Myth: Alaska’s indigenous people are against oil exploration in the Coastal Plain.

Reality: Alaska’s Inupiat Eskimo people, who live on the North Slope (one village, Kaktovik, is the only community within ANWR) strongly support onshore oil and gas exploration in the Coastal Plain, and elsewhere on the North Slope. Some of the Gwichins, who live 150 miles south of the Coastal Plain, are opposed to development. The Gwichins leased their own lands for oil exploration, but no oil was found. Now they oppose the Inupiats having the same rights to explore.

 

[Phil Deese]

Myth Busters From ANWR.org!!

The caribou real story!!

*Myth: Development of the Coastal Plain will destroy the caribou.

Reality: The same claim was made about the trans-Alaska pipeline more than 2 decades ago, but today North Slope caribou herds along the pipeline and near the North Slope oil fields are thriving.

GET IT STRAIGHT vinvanb!!!

 

[Hammer1]

There are many things you need a trained scientist or engineer for.

But determining a trend is not one of them.

W. Edwards Deming taught elementary school children how to distinguish trends.

Just go to the source data which is publicly available (NOAA).

Anyone can get it.

Using either annual averages, or monthly data if you take the effort to deseasonalize it, and plot it. Anyone who has been in one day of SPC training knows how to do a nonparametric test for a trend.



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[vinny]

The caribou real story!!

*Myth: Development of the Coastal Plain will destroy the caribou.

Reality: The same claim was made about the trans-Alaska pipeline more than 2 decades ago, but today North Slope caribou herds along the pipeline and near the North Slope oil fields are thriving.

GET IT STRAIGHT vinvanb!!!

Phil
Calling vicvanb, vinvanb is a bit insulting to me.
Love ya posts!
vinny

 

[Phil Deese]

vinny............................................. ....................

Thanks!! It takes all of us to keep the truth out there!!! I talked to my cousin, who is a stockbroker and handles my retirement funds.....he said these Obama people are crazy and will end up destroying our economy if they get elected...............he has been right for many years!!!

 

[vinny]

Thanks!! It takes all of us to keep the truth out there!!! I talked to my cousin, who is a stockbroker and handles my retirement funds.....he said these Obama people are crazy and will end up destroying our economy if they get elected...............he has been right for many years!!!

Phil
The economy isn't all they'll destroy!

 

[Hammer1]

Is there a trend ?

Is there a trend ?

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[Hammer1]

Is there a trend now ?

Is there a trend now ?

 

[vinny]

Is there a trend ?

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Is that trend line an indicator in the reduction of liberal intelligence over the last 25 years
vinny

 

[cntryboy1289]

Vic, while I really do appreciate what you believe, it just isn't so because some scientist say it is. One thing about science, it always changes and yet always still stays relatively the same at the same time.

Again, if you do what I asked and what Hammer mentioned, you might just find something else than what you have been led to believe to be the case.

 

[Phil Deese]

I like the way............................................... .....

he throws the word "Reputable" out there, when we've already proven his buddy in Alaska doesn't know what he's talking about!!
vinvanb is probably someone involved in the vast left wing conspiracy!!

 

[RayfromTX]

An interesting link about oil price speculation being blamed for the big run up in oil prices. I'm dropping it here because the 4$ gas thread died and maybe it will get us off the conservative/liberal argument about global climate change.

It is a good read and makes sense to me.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/0620200...nists/scapegoating_the_speculators_116339.htm

 

[Hammer1]

he throws the word "Reputable" out there

Almost as much as Mattie Ross threw out "Lawyer Daggett" at Rooster Cogburn in True Grit.

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[Hammer1]

Wonder if this is a trend ?

Wonder if this is a trend ?

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