Stats from LV 200 Cactus Match

G

Gary Ocock

Member
I did a statistical analysis of the 200 yard HV at the cactus to see if there was a pattern with the results. We now have 2 burns on either side of the range. Even though we have 65 firing points it is believed that the new burns have changed the wind patterns we have experienced at Ben Avery for many years. It was usually thought that the Ben Avery Range was considered an honest range; meaning the wind was readable and just about the same for everyone, no matter which bench you were shooting from. This years Cactus was a chance for me to look at the numbers to see if there is a change.

I divided the range up into thirds. Benches 1 through 20, benches 21 through 40 and 41 through 60. Looking at the top 20 in the HV 200; benches 1-20 had 8 people in the top 20, 21-40 had 6 in the top 20 and 41 -60 had 6 as well. Not much of a pattern but the left side of the range faired a bit better.

I also attached a chart with all shooters from the HV 200 based on their aggs and the benches they shot from. I grouped the benches by 5. starting from 3 since I didn’t use benches 1 and 2. The bar chart shows very similar to the top 20 results in that the left side of the range faired a bit better than the rest of the range. Bench group 13 was first (.6773 agg average), bench group 58 was second (.7243 agg average), group 28 was third (.7275 agg average). I didn’t include anyone that had a 10.000 group in their agg, they were left out so as not to skew the results.
Conclusion- it would seem that the left side of the range faired a bit better than the rest of the range. Can I conclude that the wind was more readable there than on the rest of the range I’m not sure? This was such a small sample and there are so many factors that will influence the results that I think it would take years worth of stats to see if there is a persistent pattern. I'll look again sometime and let you know.

Gary O.
 

Attachments

  • HV 200 Cactus bar chart 1.xls
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Has anyone tried..

To set up and film the field of windflags during a big shoot such as the Cactus or Super Shoot or any number of the well attended match to collect visual data..?
I would think a series of 4 or more video cameras set in front of the support posts of the firing line maybe using wide angle lenses would be interesting documentation...have the camera record time/date...
 
One of the ranges I shoot at

Is a lot smaller than the Ben Avery but it has high berms on both sides of it. Depending on wind direction one side is usually better than the other and sometimes the middle is the most "honest" place to be. Berms don't add much to being able to read conditions, I haven't found. What they do is to add CHANCE into the mix of things. If one happens to draw the Honey Hole and can EXECUTE, they can look like a HERO.
 
Gary
Can you go back and figure what happened to the aggs. when the
"dust devils" would come through. We can figure all we want, but Murdica sure knew what he wanted to shoot and did a fine job of it.
RR
 
Thanks Gary

Didn't get a chance to thank you for all the work running the shoot. You guys did a great job considering the blasting wind conditions on Sunday. And if you see Joe thank him for letting me load with him, even thou nobody else probably would have.(hehe). Your stats are interesting, looking at the walling wall and the conditions on the left side, I would of thought it would of been more prevailing.
It would be more interesting to me to see a chart solely on the shooters that had the 10.000 groups (what benches they were shooting on). too see if it matches up with your top twenty chart.
It felt like spring today in PA.
thanks again
dale
 
I remember . . .

I met Manley at the 1978 SuperShoot. Yup: 30 years ago next month. The 6th Annual was my first. Loaded right across the table from Manley. Paid him for a reticlule rule he upgraded for me. I had bought that group measuring device many years before from old John Sweeny.

On the first morning we had a misty rain. I mentioned to Manley after my first relay that I was getting verticle stringing. He said: "Your stock is sticking on those wet sandbags. Do you have baby power on the bags?"

Huh? . . . I started shooting in local benchrest matches back in 1956. Never heard of using baby powder. Slow learning I guess. But: I think I learned more about benchrest in that 3 day SuperShoot than a had learned shooting by myself in a year.

Thank You, Manley Oakley.

Joe Haller (Mr. Frosty)
 
Gary Ocock said:
Bench group 13 was first (.6773 agg average), bench group 58 was second (.7243 agg average), group 28 was third (.7275 agg average). I didn’t include anyone that had a 10.000 group in their agg, they were left out so as not to skew the results.
Conclusion- it would seem that the left side of the range faired a bit better than the rest of the range. Can I conclude that the wind was more readable there than on the rest of the range I’m not sure? This was such a small sample and there are so many factors that will influence the results that I think it would take years worth of stats to see if there is a persistent pattern. I'll look again sometime and let you know.

Gary O.
Click to expand...

You can know if you have enough data by calculating the standard deviation (s.d.) for each of your three agg averages. This will tell you whether the differences you are seeing are real or just random chance.

So for example if 0.6773 + s.d. is still less than 0.7243 then there is a 68% chance that the difference is real. If 0.6773 + 2 x s.d. is less than 0.7243 then there is a 95% chance that the difference is real, for 3 x s.d. a 99.7% chance.

Similarly you could compare the 0.7243 and 0.7275 agg averages.

As you get more data your s.d. values will get smaller and your averages may or may not get closer depending on if the differences are real or not.
 
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