Is hurricane sandy a bellwether?

Al, to add to what Boyd said, though I suspect you already either know or could figure it out...

First, sort of an aside: we have two HVAC systems in our house, as we can easily shut down half of it for most of the winter. I've found in two different type of houses we've had, one a two story, one a long, long single story, that it pays to have two HVAC systems. This is primarily a decision about comfort; as you older folk know, it wasn't unusual to have a two-story house with only bedrooms upstairs, and they didn't need to be heated at all. But once you make the decision to have heat/cooling in a whole house of a significant size, multiple systems often make the most sense.

The other thing about our current house is we are outside the natural gas delivery range, so "gas" means "propane." Since 2002 or so, propane costs rival & sometimes exceed the cost of of gasoline. On the other hand, electricity here is relatively cheap. Finally, we've also found that electrical power here can be disrupted, usually by storms, and leave us without power, typically for a week. Historically, this happens about once every 3-4 years.

So in our case, when propane skyrocketed, the decision to switch to electric power also meant considering the cost of an auxiliary generator. And if the only heat source we had was electric, that would have meant a huge generator.

The final decision was to use "electricity only" in the portion of the house we could shut down, and a dual-fuel heat pump on the half of the house we live in all year. Next, we set the transfer temperature lower than recommended. As Boyd said, operating a heat pump outside a certain range is less efficient. Just generally, more than a 30-degree change in temperature is one issue, the other is that as the temperature drops, you have to use some of a heat pump's heating to keep it's own coils from freezing.

But one thing people don't usually know is that you can still run a heat pump outside it's optimum region. It works much harder, and the discharge temperature is lower, but it works. And if you set the transfer point lower, you can always manually override to "emergency heat" & kick in the gas furnace. Changing the setting of the transfer point though, seems to be a "service call" kind of issue, rather than a user "manual override." You wouldn't want to do this with natural gas at it's current price. Propane is a different matter entirely.

OK, I've gone on a lot because that's my nature, but also to try & make the point that where you live, what your house is like, and what's you're willing to accept are all factors in any HVAC system. But they're usually sold, even at the local dealer/installer level, as one size fits all. More than marketing -- the engineers you hire don't really have much experience with all the possibilities, so they go with what their willing to stake their professional reputations on, and that's a fairly narrow range of options, because historically, we've used a fairly narrow range.


Another BTW that Boyd touched on -- humidity -- water -- can also be a largish factor. Decisions that make sense one place won't work in others. I looked at a half-underground house, but had to abandon the notion because in the south generally, and where we live particularly, controlling the water content of the living space would have gotten very complicated.

* * *

This thread started out as one looking answers on a global policy basis. I think that's futile. But we can all make better decision on an individual -- local -- level. How big a factor you want "cost" and "green" to be is suddenly manageable. The hard part is finding the knowledge from experienced people, because this is a relatively new notion.

(I don't man you can't find experts on alternative systems. But what I've found is we're in such early days they each view their particular alternative system as the answer, and so, continue to overlook individual needs & wishes. What is harder to find is the expertise that can come up with the best system for an individual. Since it's rare, it costs, too.)
 
I am still waiting! When I was in the 5th grade (1954), there were some engineers from General Motors who made a presentation at our school. They had a small car (about 2 feet long) with a solar cell on top. When they shined a light on the cell the car accelerated slowly across the stage. Then we were told that this is the energy that we would use by the time we were old enough to drive. I am still waiting! James

GM won the first World Solar Challenge with their Sunraycer (the solar "cockroach" car) in 1987, then dropped out of further competition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunraycer). The latest winner had an average speed of 57 mph over the 1900 mile course using nothing but solar energy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Solar_Challenge). The cars have no place to stash your shooting gear to travel to a match:rolleyes:, but are still pretty cool, in the nerd sense of the word. It is about time they started a competition in which the rules include two passengers, carrying cargo, safety equipment, etc., like a normal car. Then we would see the type of car you have been waiting for.
 
GM won the first World Solar Challenge with their Sunraycer (the solar "cockroach" car) in 1987, then dropped out of further competition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunraycer). The latest winner had an average speed of 57 mph over the 1900 mile course using nothing but solar energy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Solar_Challenge). The cars have no place to stash your shooting gear to travel to a match:rolleyes:, but are still pretty cool, in the nerd sense of the word. It is about time they started a competition in which the rules include two passengers, carrying cargo, safety equipment, etc., like a normal car. Then we would see the type of car you have been waiting for.

Heres how Ray feels about global goofus:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORyzsMZPPUg&feature=relmfu
 
Some want to re-write history to promote their own agenda. Meteorologist Joe Bistardi has set the record straight by stating facts.....i.e. there WERE other massive hurricanes and other weather events that hammered the NorthEast THROUGHOUT modern history ....did you all forget Hazel ('54), Connie ('55), Diane ('55) Agnes ('72), Gloria ('85), Irene (2011). In my area the "'55 Flood" -from Agnes is still evident in everyday travel as hundreds of small bridges are still traversed today on the same "temporary" open grate steel bridges that were quickly erected due to practically every small bridge throughout northeast PA and lower NY state being wiped out. The only given according to Bistardi is that these events are cyclic. This info is easy to find, don't let the Weather Channel hype confuse the facts.
 
The only given according to Bistardi is that these events are cyclic.

No they are not. How many other 365-day intervals (November 2011 to November 2012) were there in the last 100 years with a record warm winter, a record drought, extensive wildfires, record arctic sea ice melting, and events as large and powerful as Super Storm Sandy all occurring together?

No one disputes that there have been other extreme weather events in the past. The point is that with the climate change that is now happening, these extreme events are more frequent. "Natural" cycles don't expain it.
 
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Cycles Umm

No they are not. How many other 365-day intervals (November 2011 to November 2012) were there in the last 100 years with a record warm winter, a record drought, extensive wildfires, record arctic sea ice melting, and events as large and powerful as Super Storm Sandy all occurring together?

No one disputes that there have been other extreme weather events in the past. The point is that with the climate change that is now happening, these extreme events are more frequent. "Natural" cycles don't expain it.

There is one occurrence that doesn't seem to fit peoples idea of a cycle and that is what brought the planet out of an ice age 20,000 years ago. I will bet a C note that it wasn't an industrial revolution that triggered it. I wonder if what the cause was is still warming things up today. When the experts can explain that they might have contributed something worth while to understanding the why.
Andy.
 
No they are not. How many other 365-day intervals (November 2011 to November 2012) were there in the last 100 years .....


I'm tellin' ya guys, THIS is what we're up against!!! To vic, this really is statistically relevant! They've all BEEN to school, they've all LEARNED of monkeys and typewriters....

But they understand and apply NONE OF IT!!

"Real world application" is only a concept to those who don't actually DO and actually BUILD stuff. It's about actually spending the coin, only then can things like "cost effectiveness" and "amortization" begin to really be understood. I was a liberal until I got money, I had all sorts of ideas, ideals and dreams.

Then I started spending money.... real money.... looking for results......

ouch!

Reality has a way of tempering dreams..... it's like the difference between the literary genres labeled 'Science Fiction' and 'Fantasy,' even though they're on the same shelf in the bookstore, one is liberal, one is conservative. And there's very little crossover. For instance L E Modesitt tries really hard to write sci fi but he's a liberal, it just doesn't ring true. He writes decent fantasy but complete crap sci fi.

(and to all those who think this is "irrelevant," you've obviously never read actual sci fi! Science Fiction and it's twin Speculative Fiction are written by physicists, engineers, geeks from all walks of life but SCIENCE wonks all....ain't no magic in sci fi and the protagonists need more than apples, mead and cheese to survive)

Sci Fi has to WORK. And it's a funny darn thing but there's something about spending 3-4 grand on a shooting system.... if it doesn't WORK then you really miss that money!


See how I tied this all up into a shooting topic?

perty good huhh

:)

LOL

al
 
I recently had the opportunity to be on a cruise ship that took us to the the upper end of Glacier Bay National Park. We had an ongoing narative throughout the day from a park ranger who joined us on the boat for the day. What really got my attention was the fact that Glacier Bay didn't exist in 1750. It was completely frozen. The glaciers have been receding since at least that time. You can go to a map of Glacier Bay National Park and look at the time line. Am I to believe that we were burning enough fossil fuels in the 1700's to begin melting glaciers? I'll freely admit that I don't have access to enough information and neither do I have the education to make definative conculsion, but you can color me sceptical.

Rick
 
Alinwa:

You are off on another tangent--science fiction vs. fantasy? Conservative vs. liberal? Really?

I did not present a statistical analysis--just asked a simple question (which you couldn't answer). To me, the extreme weather events of the last 12 months are likely not due to "natural" cycles. To those who believe they are, I guess we'll just have to see what happens in the coming years. Maybe arctic sea ice will stop melting, sea levels will drop, droughts will end, mean annual global temps will decline, etc...maybe. The thing is, if the skeptics are wrong, every year we delay addressing the problem puts us closer to really big irreversible changes.

I repeat: When our young kids are our age will they hold us accountable for failure to act when we knew how serious the problems were? (Well, some of us knew anyway).
 
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algores other invention, carbon credits, will address the problem, I am quite sure.......brilliant, absolutely brilliant idea......we give $$ to to other countries that are not very productive ( lazy in laymans terms) because we are prolific producers .....likewise I am sure China (our nearest production rival ) is giving their fair share too. Can you say Ponzi?
 
I didn't read all the posts on this thread, I didn't want my head to explode. IF any warming that's taken place is caused by humans at this time how do we explain the warming that occurred about 1000 years ago when the Scandinavians were settling in Greenland before people began using oil and gas or very much coal? If our climate is so warm now how is it that it's not possible to grow grain crops in Greenland like it was 1000 years ago? How is it that the Scandinavians back then could raise cattle, sheep, and goats and fairly thrive until the Little Ice Age began and they either left, died in place, or were killed by the Inuits who likely didn't take well to be set upon by the Scandinavian settlers. Why is it that about 2000 years ago things were apparently as warm as they were 1000 years ago? Along with warming in Europe 1000 years ago our SW suffered severe droughts about that time as well, causing the Anasazi to leave to hopefully cooler and wetter parts.

The only thing constant about climate is change. Those who are trying to sell us "anthropogenic warming" or "climate change" or whatever it's called this week are doing it for exactly one reason, CONTROL. It offends their delicate sensibilities that in this country up until recently we pretty much did as we pleased as long as we weren't stepping on anyone else's toes. That offends the UN and those who think that the UN is smarter than average no end.
 
I did not present a statistical analysis--just asked a simple question (which you couldn't answer).

I repeat: When our young kids are our age will they hold us accountable for failure to act when we knew how serious the problems were? (Well, some of us knew anyway).

huhhh?

"tangent?"....?????

As I told you earlier, "there are no simple questions!"

But against my better judgement I'll "answer" you in terms you understand.

"No"

The answer is "no."

I repeat, "no."

Can I be more clear?

I simply disagree with your viewpoint.... I've had hundreds of people through the years tell me "when you understand" and "you will see someday" and "once I'm proven right you'll rue the day" and "won't you feel silly when" and "time will tell" and...... DUDE!!! I'M A HALF-CENTURY OLD AND I'VE BEEN RIGHT 99% OF THE TIME!

And when I'm proven wrong my worldview changes.

Ba da'BOOM. it's that simple.

Meantime, this dreamtime fantasy about "reversing the change" serves ONE purpose. It lines he pockets of the unscrupulous rogues who're scuzzy enough to steal from the gullible. The only thing I find lower in this political jungle is the folks like Farrakhan and Jackson who prey on "their own people" (their words, not mine. I don't believe in skin color.)
 
Al, to add to what Boyd said, though I suspect you already either know or could figure it out...

First, sort of an aside: we have two HVAC systems in our house, as we can easily shut down half of it for most of the winter. I've found in two different type of houses we've had, one a two story, one a long, long single story, that it pays to have two HVAC systems. This is primarily a decision about comfort; as you older folk know, it wasn't unusual to have a two-story house with only bedrooms upstairs, and they didn't need to be heated at all. But once you make the decision to have heat/cooling in a whole house of a significant size, multiple systems often make the most sense.

The other thing about our current house is we are outside the natural gas delivery range, so "gas" means "propane." Since 2002 or so, propane costs rival & sometimes exceed the cost of of gasoline. On the other hand, electricity here is relatively cheap. Finally, we've also found that electrical power here can be disrupted, usually by storms, and leave us without power, typically for a week. Historically, this happens about once every 3-4 years.

So in our case, when propane skyrocketed, the decision to switch to electric power also meant considering the cost of an auxiliary generator. And if the only heat source we had was electric, that would have meant a huge generator.

The final decision was to use "electricity only" in the portion of the house we could shut down, and a dual-fuel heat pump on the half of the house we live in all year. Next, we set the transfer temperature lower than recommended. As Boyd said, operating a heat pump outside a certain range is less efficient. Just generally, more than a 30-degree change in temperature is one issue, the other is that as the temperature drops, you have to use some of a heat pump's heating to keep it's own coils from freezing.

But one thing people don't usually know is that you can still run a heat pump outside it's optimum region. It works much harder, and the discharge temperature is lower, but it works. And if you set the transfer point lower, you can always manually override to "emergency heat" & kick in the gas furnace. Changing the setting of the transfer point though, seems to be a "service call" kind of issue, rather than a user "manual override." You wouldn't want to do this with natural gas at it's current price. Propane is a different matter entirely.

OK, I've gone on a lot because that's my nature, but also to try & make the point that where you live, what your house is like, and what's you're willing to accept are all factors in any HVAC system. But they're usually sold, even at the local dealer/installer level, as one size fits all. More than marketing -- the engineers you hire don't really have much experience with all the possibilities, so they go with what their willing to stake their professional reputations on, and that's a fairly narrow range of options, because historically, we've used a fairly narrow range.


Another BTW that Boyd touched on -- humidity -- water -- can also be a largish factor. Decisions that make sense one place won't work in others. I looked at a half-underground house, but had to abandon the notion because in the south generally, and where we live particularly, controlling the water content of the living space would have gotten very complicated.

* * *

This thread started out as one looking answers on a global policy basis. I think that's futile. But we can all make better decision on an individual -- local -- level. How big a factor you want "cost" and "green" to be is suddenly manageable. The hard part is finding the knowledge from experienced people, because this is a relatively new notion.

(I don't man you can't find experts on alternative systems. But what I've found is we're in such early days they each view their particular alternative system as the answer, and so, continue to overlook individual needs & wishes. What is harder to find is the expertise that can come up with the best system for an individual. Since it's rare, it costs, too.)

OK, I've stalled off "answering" you and Boyd. I'll just say this, I'm IN the building trades..... every day.... I deal daily with the balancing act of budget VS payback. Every day across the spectrum, I'm intimately involved with heatpumps both free-standing and geothermal, in-ground and water-table systems. I live in the temperate zone where heat pumps are a perfectly tailored solution to many problems. It never gets hot here, nor cold. 80% of the time we are in optimum operating conditions. And not all of us contractors are unscrupulous jerks out to screw the general public, go to my website and read our Statement Of Accountability, it's out for all the world to see, we DO stand behind our products and we work with a large group of General and Sub Contractors who feel likewise.

And there ARE easily accessible answers to all the questions out there.

You just gotta' know where to look, and whom to ask.

The hard one is whom to ask. And all these stupid liberal "help" sites from the BBB to "linkedin" to "Angie's List" to "subcontractor network" junksites with names like "XXX-elite" and "XXX-pro" and "XXXfind-contractor.net" to "servicemagic" are making it harder and more confusing since the folks who have to buy into those sites are generally clueless.

I've managed to survive for 30yrs without a listed phone number.

I don't envy folks on the outside.

That said, THE INNERNET WORKS!!! Forums of actual people spending actual money for actual goods.... people with no dog in any fight....dispensing hard won knowledge with no hope of gain, WORKS!. There is more good info, money being saved here very day on Wilbur's Wonderboard, than folks give it credit. 20yrs ago I kept a string of little black books, I BOUGHT other people's liddle black books, just to have people to call to get me started. And I spent months calling people personally and piking their brains.... nd BOOKS.... Now recently I embarked on a whole new adventure (I've alla'sudden got THREE Sharps rifles ;) ) and I was able to find some sites with GOOD information. I eddicated me'self righteous in very short order. Couple posts on The Wilburboard, couple Boolean leaps and off and running....

Good Stuff.

Thanx Wilbur
al
 
Al,
I wrote what I wrote because I thought that you were looking for the information. Since I am under the impression that you are a concrete sub, I thought that you might find it useful. Next time I will know that because of your vast experience, that the question is to be viewed as most likely rhetorical.
Boyd
 
Al, AMEN!

I've got a few years on you, and can remember winters when I was a little kid in North Central Montana when it was nice and warm, and when I was older when people were considering buying larger caliber rifles for the expected influx of polar bears it was so cold. When I was in college in the early - mid 60's we had cold and snow that was miserable to deal with. Now not so much. A few years back at one of my nephew's football games I was sitting in front of some old time ranchers who were talking about the weather. One commented that if they were still using horses like they did in the 30's that we'd be experiencing dust bowl conditions which we're not.

In the early 1970's the same rocket scientists, including Dr Jim Hansen of NASA, who are now telling us we have to do something about warming, were telling us that we'd be up to our tails in ice and snow by the end of the century. Now they've conveniently forgotten all about that. Another ice age wasn't only mentioned in rags like Time and Newsweek, but in respectable scientific journals like SCIENCE.

If Sandy proved anything it's that Mother Nature is a female canine who is not to be messed with. If she wants to make things warm, they'll by God be warm, if she wants things to be cold, they'll by God be cold. About the only thing we can do aside from praying is to insulate and have a good furnace or air conditioner.

The people who whine about how we need clean air and water obviously aren't old enough to remember when water was dirty and polluted, and in many towns breathing in the winter sucked in lots of coal smoke. That doesn't happen anymore in this country. Driving on I-90 across Northern Idaho the streams were dead from pollution from the silver smelters and mines and the trees were dead from the smoke from the smelters as late as the early 70's and 30 years later shows a world of difference. The streams are clear and plants grow along them, and the trees are actually alive and thriving. I've had it with the we need more regulation from the EPA to save us from some horrible future. We cleaned things up, and with very few exceptions what's being done now or proposed benefits a tiny percentage of the population at the expense of all the rest of us.
 
Al,
I wrote what I wrote because I thought that you were looking for the information. Since I am under the impression that you are a concrete sub, I thought that you might find it useful. Next time I will know that because of your vast experience, that the question is to be viewed as most likely rhetorical.
Boyd

Sorry Boyd, I shouldn't have "answered," I just thought it may be construed as impolite not to.

I'm not a very adept social animal, yes, I p!$$ off my friends....... but I don't p!$$ on them.

Please accept my clumsy apologies...... I'll back out now, parsing me'self a little thin it seems.

al
 
BTW all, (I should let this go but I won't because I'm a little peeved at Boyd's comment re "my vast store of knowledge") I don't claim to KNOW much of anything, BUT I'M THE BEST I KNOW AT KNOWING WHO TO ASK.

That's a whole lot more useful than knowledge.

Thanks to some of you in this thread (of course you included Boyd as you well know) for being there when I've asked.

And I HAVE asked........

al
 
Sorry about all he missed letters (even a whole missing sentence) but my keyboard's acting up
 
Al,
We are still friends, and when I become perfect (long wait) you can worry about your own perfection. Until then....
Boyd
 
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