Ken,
Sorry, but I can’t provide an explanation for that much movement under the conditions you describe….not from a ballistics standpoint anyway.
Let’s try approaching this anomalous projectile behavior from another perspective: That being the normal random dispersion inherent in all shot groupings with rimfires.
First, you have to agree that there is not a rimfire in existence capable of placing every shot thru the same hole. You may be able to fire a short series of shots where random chance allows you to do it but when you fire a longer series of shots such as you would at a BR target….the group becomes quite large.
How large you say….well based on only a partial analysis of the scores being fired indoors where conditions are most conducive for determining the rifles capabilities vs the shooter’s ability, I can make an educated guess or rough estimate of maybe 0.300” give or take a few hundredths.
Without troubling with a mathematical analysis or using the GAP software, I would think we’d see a lot more IR 50/50 250 25x’s (0.255” 25 shot group size), ARA 2500’s (0.276” 25 shot group size), and PSL 2500’s (0.283” 25 shot group size) if anybody has rifles consistently shooting better than the 0.300” range. We do seem to see many more USBR 250’s (0.324” 25 shot group size).
Please let me know if my measurements are incorrect or if my thoughts on scores are erroneous because those are the numbers I’m using for my rough estimate.
Anyway, I think that any shot within the .3” to .5” range (depends on your rifle’s accuracy) might be declared a flyer or attributed to some unseen force, but, may just be simply an outlier from the boundaries of the density pattern/grouping normally formed by “your” rifle.
If you’re curious about what I typically see with my firearms with the methods I’ve developed and the GAP software….you could look at my blog.
BTW, I’m just another one of those internet “expurts” and there are thousands of them….so your mileage may vary.
Landy