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View Full Version : Statistical Analysis of Bench Number Versus Finishing Position



crb
08-01-2009, 03:39 PM
Has anybody else done this for their range ? For Riverbend it's pretty startling. I haven't actually done anything but make a chart showing the top 4 finishers at most of the club matches held in the last 2.5 years.

We basically have 17 benches available . The first 9 benches have had 6 winners with no bench having more than one winner. Benches 10 thru 15 have had 14 winners in the same time period. Bench 14 has been the winner an astounding 5 times !!!!! Bench 11 has won 3 times, benches 10 and 15 have had 2 winners each and 12 and 13 have each won one time.

The second and third place finishers also have a definite bias towards the right. Benches 9 and 10 have each had 4 second place finishers with bench 11 hosting 3 second places. Bench 13 has had 5 third place finishers and benches 11 and 14 having 3 thirds each.

As you would expect, the fourth place line on my chart is pretty even all the way across the firing line.

Benches 1 and 2 have had no winners. 3 thru 6 have one each. None at lucky number 7 :eek:

The sad thing is, all of my really good scores have been way down on the right. So much for feeling like I am figuring things out !!:mad:

John Kielly
08-01-2009, 04:52 PM
Part your hair on the other side!

David Halblom
08-02-2009, 04:29 PM
Has anybody else done this for their range ? For Riverbend it's pretty startling. I haven't actually done anything but make a chart showing the top 4 finishers at most of the club matches held in the last 2.5 years.

We basically have 17 benches available . The first 9 benches have had 6 winners with no bench having more than one winner. Benches 10 thru 15 have had 14 winners in the same time period. Bench 14 has been the winner an astounding 5 times !!!!! Bench 11 has won 3 times, benches 10 and 15 have had 2 winners each and 12 and 13 have each won one time.

The second and third place finishers also have a definite bias towards the right. Benches 9 and 10 have each had 4 second place finishers with bench 11 hosting 3 second places. Bench 13 has had 5 third place finishers and benches 11 and 14 having 3 thirds each.

As you would expect, the fourth place line on my chart is pretty even all the way across the firing line.

Benches 1 and 2 have had no winners. 3 thru 6 have one each. None at lucky number 7 :eek:

The sad thing is, all of my really good scores have been way down on the right. So much for feeling like I am figuring things out !!:mad:

BUT, your statistical sample is WAY TOO SMALL to have ANY significance. If the same was the case over 100 matches, Then I would BEGIN to think there was a factor. Right now, it is an interesting anomaly

B J Atkinson
08-10-2009, 01:46 AM
This sounds like a good example of why we have bench rotation.

On our range it was thought that bench 20 was the place to be as it was close to a wall. Some shooters started arriving earlier each shoot so that they could claim this bench. It was quite funny to watch.

crb
08-10-2009, 06:23 AM
Halblom, the stats are from the ENTIRE time I have been involved in BR competition and for EVERY match I have ever fired in. That is the ONLY time period I am interested in therefore the stats are irrefutable.

The only pertinent component not allowed for is weather conditions which make all the difference in the world at Riverbend. I am sure that as the conditions get more severe the bias gets farther right.

At Saturdays match the organizers decided to not use the first 5 benches. We had a new guy show up late and he was down on bench 18. I let him use a couple of spare windflags and the difference in wind was startling. This is the first time I have had my flags at opposite sides of the range so that I could make a direct comparison. Even with the very nice conditions we had on Saturday there were still a notable lack of wind down to the right because of the big berm there that runs the full length of the range.

BJ, we draw for bench position. Rotating every target is the only true solution but it's to big a pita for a club match.

jackie schmidt
08-10-2009, 10:36 AM
Everybody knows that there are certain ranges that do have benches that offer a distinct advantage. In the Gulf Coast Region, we have such a range, It is Denton. On the left side, there is an overcrop of brush and trees that run the entire distance down range. If a shooter is on bench one or two, life can be very easy.

Thisis magnified by the fact that as you get further away, the conditions get really nasty. This is particularilly so when there is a quartering wind left to right. The flags from about bench five on down are going crazy, and one and two are doing nothing.

Of course, if the wind is coming from the right, all bets are off.

The solution is that at Denton,they do rotate after each yardage. If nobody wants to rotate, I will gladly take one or two for the entire week end.

A few years back, a range in a Neighboring Region got a bad name because mysteriously, all of the locals seemed to get the bench they wanted. They also did not rotate. Soon, nobody wanted to even go there.

There are Ranges that tend to be neutral. At Midland, we shoot the middle 25 Benches, and it is equalilly bad for everyone.

New Braunfels tends to be neutral, and for a number of years they just stopped rotating, everybody stayed put for the entire week end.. That is, untill one year two shooters who were sharing the same bench won first and second at the Saturday morning 100. Suddenly, they decided to rotate for the next yardage.:D

Tomball is another range where the left side is pretty good if the wind is coming from the left. But, when it switches, it bounces off the tree line and can make life myserable.

As long as you do rotate, and the bench draw is done in accordance to the rules, then things should work out. Sure, certain benches might produce winners more often, but it will be different shooters.........jackie

crb
08-10-2009, 11:46 AM
Eureka !!! I have it !!!!

The heck with drawing for position. Do it like Nascar does when qualifying is rained out. The guy that's first in points gets bench 1 and so on down through the order !!!!

Whaddya think Scott ????!!!!?? hahhahaha;)

Dave Rabin
08-10-2009, 07:33 PM
Ray,

I have a better idea. Whatever bench Scott draws, I get that bench instead of him, because whichever bench Scott gets usually wins!

Dave

crb
08-10-2009, 07:51 PM
Dave,
So you're saying I need to do a study on the " Statistical Probability of Scott Always Seeming to Get the Best Bench for the Prevailing Conditions at any Given Match " ??? :p

Wilbur
08-10-2009, 08:58 PM
I coulda save you the time. At Riverbend, the time it takes in seconds to make up your mind whether to stay or leave equals the bench number drawn. Never unload anything there before the bench drawing just in case you draw bench...uh...er...you get an emergency phone call and have to leave quickly.

Dave Rabin
08-10-2009, 10:05 PM
Actually, I was making a joke and trying to make a point at the same time. You could put Scott anywhere from number 1 to number 20 and I think he would win wherever you put him. The bench he's at wins -- not because of the bench location but because he is the one doing the shooting at it. Stated another way, it's not the bench that wins -- it's the shooter.

By the way, when I started shooting smallbore I was surprised by how they assign firing points (the smallbore analog to benches), accustomed as I was to random assignment of benches in benchrest. In smallbore, the shooter picks his own firing point and the folks I shoot with don't really seem to care which point they're on.

Dave

crb
08-11-2009, 06:41 AM
Dave,
Actually I knew you were making a joke which is why I came up with my counter joke. :eek:

Wilbur,
We had two guys leave after 200 yds. One of them was on bench 14 !!!!!

ScottD
08-11-2009, 09:11 AM
Well here is my take.

Benches 15-20 are considered the good benches. There is a berm down the side and then from 100 to 200 yards the range is cut into a mountain side, at 200 yards the 15-20 bench targets are in a corner with 20foot+ high walls on two sides.

I hate benches 15-20.

I think that since the range is cut into a hill - the wind comes into the "bowl" and swirls. While benches 15-20 are protected on one side they are also along the "edge" of the bowl so you always get some effect.

The reason I don't like it is that flags do not work well along the edge - its like shooting blind. The last time i was on that end - i had to watch flags 3-4 benches over.

More importantly - i don't like benches on the end at any range - i like the middle. On the ends you don't have a field of flags on both sides to watch - only your own. It allows the wind to sneak up on you.

2 points. The trick is to figure out how to win on your bench - if I am on the right side I watch flags 3-4 benches over. If I am on the left end, I try to only shoot a right to left condition and shoot faster.

i really hate to bring this one up....... Last year at Riverbend we changed the bench numbers from "right to left" to "left to right" so your numbers may be screwed up.